The odds of making it as a writer are one in twenty, not one in a million
Everyone told Sanderson that becoming a writer was nearly impossible and his chances were slim. His actual experience contradicts the folklore: among people who genuinely dedicate themselves to the craft, he estimates roughly one in twenty or thirty go on to have a career, not one in a million. He points out the framing problem — if med school came with a one-in-twenty chance of becoming a doctor, people would rethink it, yet the same odds in writing are treated as hopeless. He isn't dismissing the difficulty; it's still a hard job because it sits in entertainment. His objection is to the exaggeration, which discourages people who would otherwise clear the bar.
“my experience has been that people who really dedicate themselves to the craft and things it's more like one out of 20 or 30”
“it's still a difficult job to get to work because it's in entertainment but it's not as crazy difficult as people pretend it is”