Rory Sutherland27 April 2023

How To Influence People: Marketing Secrets Behind The World’s Biggest Brands - Rory Sutherland

6Frameworks

13Insights

Episode overview

Ali Abdaal talks with Ogilvy vice chairman Rory Sutherland about marketing, behavioral science, statistics and the psychological creation of value. Sutherland argues that quantification can mislead when models erase context, averages or unmeasured functions, and that marketers should examine experiences from the customer's perspective. Through examples spanning loyalty programs, transport, hospitality, electric cars and technology adoption, they explore why memorable details, experimentation and emotional value can outperform narrowly rational optimization.

Key ideas

Statistical literacy is a workplace superpower, but confident use of flawed assumptions can produce dangerously incorrect conclusions.
Businesses must balance exploitation of proven knowledge with exploration that creates resilience and the possibility of unexpected growth.
In complex systems, seemingly trivial details can have large effects, so status-driven focus on only high-level variables constrains creative solutions.
Psychological value is real value: reducing uncertainty, increasing salience and reframing experiences can matter more than improving a narrowly measured metric.
Data is not inherently objective; snapshot aggregates and longitudinal customer-level views can tell fundamentally different stories.
Distinctive, talkable product and service details generate word of mouth because they give customers something remarkable to describe.
Adoption often follows a slow sigmoid curve, making product stickiness and repeat use more informative than early linear growth.
Choice architecture, loyalty structures and mental accounting can change behavior even when the underlying economic value is equivalent.

Transcript available · source text is retained privately and is not published

Frameworks in this episode

Innovation4 steps

Dare to Be Trivial

Hunt for answers at every scale because insight ignores status

Read →

Marketing4 steps

Engineering Psychological Value

Change the felt quality of an experience, not just its measurable quantity

Read →

Marketing5 steps

Salience-Framed Value

Deliver identical value as a memorable bonus, never a quiet price cut

Read →

Strategy5 steps

The Doorman Fallacy

Never reduce a role to its one obvious function before you cut it

Read →

Strategy4 steps

The Explore/Exploit Balance

Keep investing in random search even when exploiting works fine

Read →

Entrepreneurship4 steps

The Stickiness Test

Judge a new product by frequency of use and reversion, not launch sales

Read →

People & resources mentioned

Attributed to the moment in the episode. Timestamps are approximate.

People · 25

Rory SutherlandMentionsRory is the vice chairman of Ogilvy UK which is one of the biggest marketing and advertising companies in the world
“Rory is the vice chairman of Ogilvy UK”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
Ali AbdaalMentionsthe ongoing podcast where every week I get the chance to sit down with inspiring authors, entrepreneurs, creators, and other inspiring people.
“hey friends and welcome back to Deep dive for the weekly podcast”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
Brian ChristianCoinedmentioned
“algorithms to live by and the alignment problem both by Brian Christian”
▶ Watch at ~3:00approx.
Jordan PetersonMentionsmentioned
“her argument with Jordan Peterson”
▶ Watch at ~8:30approx.
Kathy NewmanMentionsmentioned
“what do you mean Kathy Newman”
▶ Watch at ~8:30approx.
Dominic CummingsMentionsmentioned
“Cummings was regarded as being a bit of an ass okay by people on civil service for continually asking why”
▶ Watch at ~23:30approx.
Richard ThalerCoinedmentioned
“cookie jar accounting Richard Taylor calls it”
▶ Watch at ~30:00approx.
Jony IveMentionsmentioned
“I did go and see a talk by Johnny Ive once”
▶ Watch at ~36:30approx.
Steve JobsMentionsmentioned
“you get stories of people like Steve Jobs getting involved with like line height and letter spacing and font choice”
▶ Watch at ~36:30approx.
Seth GodinCoinedhe's still connected energized like seems Fully Alive with like what he's doing
“Purple Cow I think there's a book by Seth Godin”
▶ Watch at ~43:30approx.
Jeremy BullmoreMentionsthe great wonderful advertising Guru who died earlier this year at 92
“famously someone said to Jeremy bullmore”
▶ Watch at ~1:00:30approx.
Chris EvansMentionsmentioned
“I appear on the Chris Evans breakfast show audience around a million people and Chris Evans interviews me about the book”
▶ Watch at ~1:01:30approx.
J. K. RowlingMentionsmentioned
“I outsold JK Rowling for about a week”
▶ Watch at ~1:02:00approx.
Byron SharpRecommendsmentioned
“if you look at the work of Byron sharp”
▶ Watch at ~1:06:00approx.
David HalpernMentionsmentioned
“David Halpin went to what was then the Cameron government”
▶ Watch at ~1:41:30approx.
Ludwig von MisesMentionsmentioned
“Austrian school economics at least Ludwig Van me as it says it's a nonsense”
▶ Watch at ~1:44:00approx.
David RockCoinedneuroscientist
“there's a wonderful model by David rocker neuroscientist called the scarf model”
▶ Watch at ~1:47:00approx.
Alexander FlemingMentionsmentioned
“Fleming was kind of working from home”
▶ Watch at ~1:50:00approx.
Yuval Noah HarariMentionsmentioned
“one of the most interesting things reading that book by indoor Harare”
▶ Watch at ~1:51:30approx.
Dan ArielyRecommendsmentioned
“also Dan ariely a lot of these people hate each other but that's because they're academics”
▶ Watch at ~1:56:30approx.
Richard ThalerRecommendsmentioned
“obviously chaldini Kahneman sailor Etc the what you might call the Canon of Behavioral Science”
▶ Watch at ~1:56:30approx.
Robert CialdiniRecommendsmentioned
“obviously chaldini Kahneman sailor Etc the what you might call the Canon of Behavioral Science”
▶ Watch at ~1:56:30approx.
Daniel KahnemanRecommendsmentioned
“obviously chaldini Kahneman sailor Etc the what you might call the Canon of Behavioral Science”
▶ Watch at ~1:56:30approx.
James C. ScottCoinedmentioned
“that's seeing like a state by James C Scott”
▶ Watch at ~1:58:00approx.
Drayton BirdCoinedone of the decisive people in my life other than my parents
“what I'm currently listening to is Drayton Bird's book you did what”
▶ Watch at ~1:58:00approx.

Resources · 43

Deep Dive with Ali AbdaalCoinedpodcast · Ali Abdaal
“hey friends and welcome back to Deep dive for the weekly podcast”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
OgilvyMentionscompany · David Ogilvy
“Rory is the vice chairman of Ogilvy UK”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don't Make SenseCoinedbook · Rory Sutherland
“he's the author of the book Alchemy the surprising power of ideas that don't make sense”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
The Alignment ProblemRecommendsbook · Brian Christian
“big book recommendation to start with algorithms to live by and the alignment problem both by Brian Christian I really highly recommend”
▶ Watch at ~3:00approx.
Algorithms to Live ByRecommendsbook · Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths
“big book recommendation to start with algorithms to live by and the alignment problem both by Brian Christian I really highly recommend”
▶ Watch at ~3:00approx.
British Medical AssociationMentionscompany
“I think that's the BMA which pretends to be a scientific organization but is really a trade Union for doctors”
▶ Watch at ~4:00approx.
NHSMentionscompany
“you could have a managerial role in the NHS where someone who is medically qualified patently has some sort of credibility”
▶ Watch at ~7:00approx.
HuelUsesproduct · Julian Hearn
“I've actually been a pain customer of huel since 2017”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
HuelRecommendsproduct · Julian Hearn
“head over to heel.com forward slash deep dive”
▶ Watch at ~21:00approx.
Trading 212Recommendssoftware · Trading 212
“invest in Broad stock market index funds which is exactly what you can do completely for free with trading 212”
▶ Watch at ~21:30approx.
New CokeMentionsproduct · The Coca-Cola Company
“it's a bit like New Coke Classic Coke”
▶ Watch at ~27:00approx.
Boots Advantage CardMentionsproduct · Boots
“let's take the boots Advantage card”
▶ Watch at ~28:30approx.
BT Friends & FamilyMentionsproduct · BT
“those of you who are older listening will remember a thing called BT friends and family”
▶ Watch at ~32:30approx.
The Magic Castle HotelMentionsplace
“the Magic Castle in Los Angeles days which is a pretty unprepossessing hotel which always seems to be in the top 10 hotels”
▶ Watch at ~38:30approx.
TripadvisorMentionswebsite
“always seems to be in the top 10 hotels in on TripAdvisor”
▶ Watch at ~38:30approx.
ChatGPTMentionssoftware · OpenAI
“there will be so much suspicion that we've got chat GPT to write our thank you letters”
▶ Watch at ~40:30approx.
WeWorkUsescompany
“I have been a full paying customer of wework for the last two years”
▶ Watch at ~41:00approx.
WeWorkRecommendscompany
“if you're looking for a co-working space for you or your team that I'd 100 recommend we work”
▶ Watch at ~42:30approx.
Purple CowMentionsbook · Seth Godin
“Purple Cow I think there's a book by Seth Godin”
▶ Watch at ~43:30approx.
High Speed 1Mentionsother
“high speed one is a fantastic idea but it took a long time to get off the ground”
▶ Watch at ~45:00approx.
High Speed 2Mentionsother
“now High Speed 2 which runs from London to Manchester”
▶ Watch at ~47:30approx.
KindleMentionsproduct · Amazon
“it's rather like the Kindle you know when when the Kindle I naively said oh this is just going to replace books”
▶ Watch at ~57:00approx.
American ExpressMentionscompany
“a strong brand like American Express which is a big Advertiser”
▶ Watch at ~58:30approx.
The Chris Evans Breakfast ShowMentionspodcast · Chris Evans
“I appear on the Chris Evans breakfast show audience around a million people”
▶ Watch at ~1:01:30approx.
AmazonUsescompany · Jeff Bezos
“I went on to Amazon to look at the sales ranking”
▶ Watch at ~1:02:00approx.
Dos EquisMentionsproduct
“the most interesting man in the world for Dos Equis”
▶ Watch at ~1:07:00approx.
YouTube PremiumRecommendsproduct · YouTube
“little listener tip YouTube premium nobody has it but it's the best value thing you've ever buy incredible”
▶ Watch at ~1:08:00approx.
Shark TankMentionstv show
“the Dragon's Den which for American listeners is known as shark tank in the U.S”
▶ Watch at ~1:09:00approx.
Dragon's DenMentionstv show
“a kind of cut down of the Dragon's Den which for American listeners is known as shark tank”
▶ Watch at ~1:09:00approx.
HungryhouseMentionscompany
“a brand called Hungry House which ended up being sold to a German company and then sold to to just eat”
▶ Watch at ~1:09:30approx.
Just EatMentionscompany
“then sold to to just eat for I think 220 million pounds”
▶ Watch at ~1:09:30approx.
Google GlassMentionsproduct · Google
“I think they they bailed on Google Glass much too early for example”
▶ Watch at ~1:20:00approx.
RightmoveMentionswebsite
“alongside say prime location or right move there was a thing called right art”
▶ Watch at ~1:23:30approx.
The Modern HouseMentionswebsite
“there's a website that does this the modern house.net”
▶ Watch at ~1:25:00approx.
SCARF ModelCoinedother · David Rock
“there's a wonderful model by David rocker neuroscientist called the scarf model”
▶ Watch at ~1:47:00approx.
The Usual SuspectsMentionsfilm
“it makes me feel like Kaiser Soze at the end of The Usual Suspects”
▶ Watch at ~1:48:00approx.
The Selfish GeneMentionsbook · Richard Dawkins
“when I first read things like the selfish Gene”
▶ Watch at ~1:49:00approx.
You Did What?Recommendsbook · Drayton Bird
“what I'm currently listening to is Drayton Bird's book you did what which is his life in direct marketing which is fantastic”
▶ Watch at ~1:58:00approx.
Seeing Like a StateRecommendsbook · James C. Scott
“that's seeing like a state by James C Scott”
▶ Watch at ~1:58:00approx.
Unreasonable HospitalityRecommendsbook · Will Guidara
“there's a great book called unreasonable Hospitality which has just come out”
▶ Watch at ~1:59:00approx.
Pret Coffee SubscriptionUsesproduct · Pret A Manger
“I recently signed up to the prep coffee subscription”
▶ Watch at ~2:01:30approx.
Amazon PrimeMentionsproduct · Amazon
“10 of businesses out there that could steal the idea of Amazon Prime for example”
▶ Watch at ~2:01:30approx.
StarbucksMentionscompany
“I'm not going to diss Starbucks he said it was those guys who made it possible for me to charge three pounds”
▶ Watch at ~2:07:30approx.

Spot an error or want something removed? Request a correction or removal.

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 2

Myth Buster1:04:30

User imagery is not your target audience

Sutherland untangles a common marketing confusion: the person shown using a product is user imagery, not the actual buyer. Small cars are advertised with 28-year-old female drivers, yet the average new-car buyer is around 54. Show young drivers and older buyers happily buy in; show 65-year-olds and you lose the younger aspiration entirely, so the featured user is chosen strategically, not as a literal customer portrait.

The person featured in an ad is user imagery, not the target audience
New cars are mostly bought by the relatively elderly despite young ad casting
Aspirational young imagery keeps older buyers without alienating the young
Reverse it, and you lose the younger audience entirely

“don't ever get confused that that's actually your target audience”
Rory Sutherland · 1:06:00

#marketing#advertising#segmentation#branding

Myth Buster1:36:30

Range anxiety is an imported American fear that doesn't fit the UK

Sutherland argues that electric-car range anxiety is a rational American fear wrongly imported into the UK. America needs about 116,000 petrol stations to serve its geography; the UK has roughly 8,500 because it is small and dense. A broken charger in Britain just means another two miles down the road by a tea shop, not a night stranded in a freezing Idaho truck stop. Ironically, every EV brand advertising its range magnifies a fear that barely applies.

US needs ~116,000 petrol stations for geography; UK has ~8,500
UK density means a failed charger is a minor detour, not a crisis
Home 3kW charging plus trains cover most real UK journeys
Brands competing on range amplify a fear that scarcely applies in Britain

“for most Brits most of the time range anxiety is a perfectly rational American fear which doesn't apply to the UK”
Rory Sutherland · 1:36:30

#electric-vehicles#marketing#behavioural-science#category-messaging

Hot Take· 3

Hot Take59:00

We favour what's quantifiable over what's important

Sutherland argues marketing has become so obsessed with measurable, attributable results that it can no longer do anything it cannot perfectly quantify. Yet many valuable marketing activities are inherently probabilistic: you make enough noise that when someone eventually enters your market, they consider you. He cites the man who bought an Aston Martin because of an advertisement he saw aged twelve, an effect no attribution model could ever capture.

Direct marketing's measurability became an obsession that crowds out the unmeasurable
Much valuable marketing is probabilistic: be known so buyers find you later
Long lags between stimulus and purchase defeat attribution
The Aston Martin bought from an ad seen at age twelve makes the point

“we've disproportionately favored what's quantifiable over what's important”
Rory Sutherland · 1:00:00

#marketing#attribution#quantification-bias#advertising

Hot Take1:27:30

Why Amazon marketplace brands have gibberish names

Sutherland explains that random consonant-and-vowel brand names like 'Lulu' exist because Amazon's algorithm prioritises trademarked names, and a made-up string is far faster and easier to trademark than a real word. This games the algorithm but serves no consumer interest. He argues brands are the units of selection in consumer capitalism: a real brand lets you reward good experiences and punish bad ones, so nonsense names actively erode market quality.

Gibberish names are easy and fast to legally trademark
Amazon's algorithm rewards trademarked names, so sellers game it
Brands are the 'units of selection' in consumer capitalism
Real brands let consumers reward and punish; nonsense names cannot
The practice degrades markets and consumer confidence

“brands are basically the units of selection in the evolutionary Marketplace which is consumer capitalism”
Rory Sutherland · 1:29:30

#branding#amazon#marketplaces#trademarks

Hot Take1:31:00

How Google and Amazon started serving themselves, not you

Sutherland describes the 'enshittification' of once-admirable platforms. Google's search degraded as ads crept from a clean right-hand column across everything, so finding a hotel's phone number now surfaces 76 competing hotels. Amazon has moved from serving the consumer to serving the advertiser and then itself, so searching for Samsung televisions no longer reliably returns Samsung televisions. The pattern: platforms serve consumers, then advertisers, then only themselves.

Great platforms decayed from serving users to serving advertisers to serving themselves
Google search filled with competing results for simple lookups
Amazon search for a named brand no longer reliably returns it
The decline creates an opening for a competitor to wrong-foot them

“if I search for Samsung televisions I expect my search to include some Samsung televisions”
Rory Sutherland · 1:32:00

#big-tech#platforms#google#amazon

Explainer· 5

Explainer10:30

Why basic statistics is a business superpower (and confident amateurs are dangerous)

Sutherland argues that a fairly good grasp of statistics is a workplace superpower because so few people have it, while confident but averagely-good statisticians are actively dangerous. He illustrates with the Sally Clark cot-death case, where multiplying probabilities as if independent, and never comparing double-cot-death against double-infanticide, turned a likely-innocent woman into a wrongful conviction. Eminent medics, barristers and judges all made the error.

You only need A-level-standard statistics for it to be a superpower
Averagely-good but confident statisticians are more dangerous than ignorant ones
The Sally Clark case multiplied cot-death odds as if independent
The real test is comparing double-cot-death vs double-infanticide probability
Oxbridge-educated experts and judges still got it catastrophically wrong

“averagely good statisticians particularly if they're confident are actively damaging and dangerous”
Rory Sutherland · 18:30

#statistics#decision-making#risk#critical-thinking

Explainer16:00

All big data comes from the same place: the past

Sutherland warns that data is only reliable if it is representative and if the future resembles the past, which is safe over a year but not over a decade. He cites a dairy company with milk delivery down to a fine art until the law let people buy milk from supermarkets, instantly voiding every assumption. Quantification bias compounds this: we over-collect what is easily measurable and mistake it for what matters.

Data is only reliable if the future resembles the past
Unrepresentative data produces similarly biased conclusions
A single law change voided a dairy company's fine-tuned model overnight
Quantification bias favours the measurable over the important

“all big data comes from the same place the past”
Rory Sutherland · 16:00

#data#forecasting#quantification-bias#risk

Explainer44:30

Why 100 people once is not the same as one person 100 times

Sutherland explains that marketers look at the world through the consumer's eyes over time, at 90 degrees to the rest of the organisation, which sees only snapshot aggregates. High Speed 1 saved a few Kent commuters an hour every day, a genuine life-changer, while High Speed 2 saves many people an hour once a year. Mathematically identical in aggregate, psychologically and behaviourally totally different, and the average customer often does not even exist.

Marketers view customers over time; the organisation sees snapshot aggregates
Saving a few people an hour daily is behaviourally unlike saving many an hour yearly
HS1 changed lives for Kent commuters; HS2 does not for Manchester
The 'average customer' is often a statistical fiction
Data is never objective; it depends on the angle you view it from

“the average customer probably doesn't even exist”
Rory Sutherland · 45:00

“saving a lot of people an hour infrequently looks the same to the statistical model as saving a few people an hour every day”
Rory Sutherland · 48:00

#marketing#behavioural-science#data#aggregation

Explainer1:06:30

Leading brands win on repertoire, not loyalty

Citing Byron Sharp, Bennett and Field, Sutherland explains that most brands are bought as part of a repertoire, and what distinguishes leading brands is simply that more people buy them sometimes and buy them slightly more often. His favourite illustration is the Dos Equis 'Most Interesting Man in the World', who does not always drink beer, and would not stick to one brand, but when he does, he prefers Dos Equis. Perfect loyalty is not the point.

Most brands are bought as part of a repertoire, not exclusively
Leaders simply have more people buying them sometimes, more often
The Dos Equis line captures repertoire buying perfectly
Chasing perfect loyalty misunderstands how brands actually grow

“I do not always drink beer but when I do I prefer Dos Equis”
Rory Sutherland · 1:07:00

#branding#marketing#loyalty#growth

Explainer1:23:00

How choice architecture distorts markets: the property-price ziggurat

Sutherland shows that the order and attributes by which people eliminate options dramatically shape what they choose, one of behavioural science's most robust findings. Property portals sort by location, price and bedroom count, so aesthetics and architecture, harder to quantify, barely register, meaning a Robert Adam or Gropius house carries near-zero premium. Price filters in £50k bands even create a 'price-demand ziggurat', so a house listed at £675k gets hidden from both searchers.

The order of elimination-by-attribute strongly shapes final choices
Hard-to-quantify aesthetics fall too far down the decision tree to matter
Great architecture adds only 0-2% to a home's price
£50k search bands turn the demand curve into a ziggurat
Bedroom-count metrics incentivise too many tiny rooms

“you don't have a price demand curve you have a price demand ziggurat”
Rory Sutherland · 1:27:30

#choice-architecture#behavioural-science#property#design

Tool· 1

Tool23:30

Ask 'why' five times: the childish question that beats intermediate objectives

Sutherland defends the habit of repeatedly asking 'why', which senior civil servants regarded as childish, almost like banging cutlery on the table. It is actually highly intelligent because in complex organisations intermediate objectives start dominating attention at the expense of the ultimate objective. The apparently low-status question forces you back to what actually matters.

Asking 'why' five times looks childish but is a sophisticated tool
Intermediate objectives quietly hijack attention from the real goal
Low-status questioning is a way to expose that drift
Seniority makes people reluctant to ask basic questions

“intermediate objectives start dominating... at the expense of what is the ultimate objective”
Rory Sutherland · 23:30

#problem-solving#management#questioning#first-principles

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway1:59:30

Steal the Amazon Prime subscription model into new industries

Sutherland is a fan of learning from unrelated businesses via recurring fractal patterns, and points to how many industries could steal the Amazon Prime membership model. He proposes a hotel-chain crash-pad subscription (pay a small annual fee, get any-vacancy rooms cheaply after 10pm) and first-class train carriages reserved for season-ticket and frequent travellers, mirroring how airlines already treat frequent flyers. Prep coffee's subscription already works this way, and reshaped his loyalty entirely.

Many businesses could transplant the Amazon Prime membership model
A hotel crash-pad subscription would suit commuters who miss their train
Trains could reserve first-class carriages for frequent and season-ticket travellers
Airlines already treat frequent flyers this way; railways never have
Prep coffee's subscription changed the guest's habits and loyalty completely

“there are probably... 10 percent of businesses out there that could steal the idea of Amazon Prime”
Rory Sutherland · 2:01:30

#subscriptions#loyalty#business-models#innovation

Takeaway2:06:30

Why chains like Travelodge and Starbucks quietly created value

Against the middle-class reflex to sneer at chains, Sutherland defends Travelodge, Premier Inn and Starbucks for raising the floor of quality. Before reliable chains, every coffee or hotel booking was a gamble with a high chance of being terrible; a dependable chain sets a standard everyone else must beat. He quotes an independent coffee-shop owner who credited Starbucks with making it possible to charge £3 for a coffee at all.

Chains created huge value by raising the floor, not just the ceiling
Before them, a coffee or hotel was a gamble with high downside
A reliable chain forces new entrants to be at least that good
An independent owner credited Starbucks with enabling his whole business
Middle-class status-signalling blinds people to this value

“there's a huge value to raising the floor”
Rory Sutherland · 2:07:30

#brands#quality#consumer-value#contrarian

Key ideas

Frameworks in this episode

Dare to Be Trivial

Engineering Psychological Value

Salience-Framed Value

The Doorman Fallacy

The Explore/Exploit Balance

The Stickiness Test

People & resources mentioned

People · 25

Resources · 43

Insights & moments

⚡Myth Buster· 2

User imagery is not your target audience

Range anxiety is an imported American fear that doesn't fit the UK

◆Hot Take· 3

We favour what's quantifiable over what's important

Why Amazon marketplace brands have gibberish names

How Google and Amazon started serving themselves, not you

✶Explainer· 5

Why basic statistics is a business superpower (and confident amateurs are dangerous)

All big data comes from the same place: the past

Why 100 people once is not the same as one person 100 times

Leading brands win on repertoire, not loyalty

How choice architecture distorts markets: the property-price ziggurat

✦Tool· 1

Ask 'why' five times: the childish question that beats intermediate objectives

▲Takeaway· 2

Steal the Amazon Prime subscription model into new industries

Why chains like Travelodge and Starbucks quietly created value

Myth Buster· 2

Hot Take· 3

Explainer· 5

Tool· 1

Takeaway· 2