Control-Luck Decision Post-Mortem
Separate controllable inputs from luck, learn the lesson, and release the outcome.
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 95%
After an outcome, resist grading the entire experience as a simple success or failure. Describe what happened, then divide its causes into controllable inputs and luck, with luck encompassing decisions and conditions outside yourself. Inspect your preparation, behaviour, communication, and other chosen inputs for lessons. Also acknowledge external influences so an internal locus of control does not become excessive self-blame. Decide what you would repeat, what you would change, and which single adjustment belongs in the next attempt. Once the lesson has been captured, stop dwelling on uncontrollable causes. This method preserves agency while recognising uncertainty: it allows failure to generate learning, prevents fortunate outcomes from disguising poor decisions, and supports resilience when a good process still produces rejection or loss.
Origin
Extracted from Deep Dive with Ali Abdaal during Dr Grace Lordan's explanation of locus of control, luck, and behavioural-science post-mortems after outcomes commonly labelled success or failure.
Core principles
- 01Outcome quality and decision quality are not identical.
- 02Luck includes factors determined outside your control.
- 03Learning requires examining inputs rather than applying a success-or-failure label.
- 04Control what can be changed and release what cannot.
- 05A post-mortem should produce a future adjustment, not rumination.
How to run it
- 1
State the Outcome
Record what happened in neutral language. Avoid beginning with global judgements about your competence or worth.
Pro tip Separate the observable result from the emotion it produced.
Watch out A binary success-or-failure label can hide useful causal information.
- 2
Inventory Your Inputs
List the choices, preparation, effort, timing, and communication that were under your control. Note both strengths and weaknesses.
Pro tip Ask what another observer could have seen you do.
Watch out Do not claim control over another person's preferences or response.
- 3
Identify Luck
List external circumstances, random variation, and other people's decisions that shaped the outcome. Treat these as real causes without using them as excuses.
Pro tip Include favourable luck as well as unfavourable luck.
Watch out Ignoring luck can cause self-blame after failure and overconfidence after success.
- 4
Extract the Lesson
Determine what your controllable inputs suggest you should repeat, stop, or change. Focus on evidence rather than emotional relief.
Pro tip Choose the lesson most likely to alter the next outcome.
Watch out Do not generate a long list that cannot realistically be implemented.
- 5
Define the Next Behaviour
Translate the lesson into one specific action for the next comparable situation. Make it observable and within your control.
Pro tip Add the behaviour to a checklist or calendar while the event is fresh.
Watch out An insight without a changed behaviour does not complete the post-mortem.
- 6
Release the Rest
Acknowledge the uncontrollable portion and end the review. Return attention to the next action rather than repeatedly replaying the event.
Pro tip Use a written closing sentence stating what you are letting go.
Watch out Reflection becomes rumination when it no longer produces new learning.
In the wild
After being rejected for a role, a candidate separates her preparation and interview answers from the employer's internal priorities and competing applicants. She identifies one answer that lacked evidence, decides to prepare two quantified examples before future interviews, and stops treating the employer's final preference as something she could have controlled.
→ She retains a practical lesson without turning one rejection into a judgement of her overall ability.
A founder wins a client despite submitting a rushed proposal. The post-mortem credits the warm referral as favourable luck and identifies weak preparation as a controllable risk. The founder introduces a proposal checklist rather than concluding that the rushed process was effective.
→ A successful result does not reinforce a poor decision process.
Common mistakes
Equating Outcome With Decision
A good decision can produce a bad result, and luck can rescue a poor decision. Review the process separately from the outcome.
Taking Responsibility for Everything
Agency becomes harmful when another person's choice or random circumstance is treated as fully controllable.
Dwelling Without Changing
Repeatedly replaying a failure is not learning unless it produces a concrete adjustment for the future.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for decisions involving uncertainty, competition, other people's choices, or noisy feedback.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal as a substitute for urgent corrective action when preventable harm is still occurring.
From the transcript
“What could I have done differently? What was my input and what was down to luck”
“it's really about identifying those things that you can control and taking hold of them and not over obsessing on the stuff that is outside…”
“people who do these post mortems really do see learning and failure, but they don't dwell on failure.”
From the episode
How To Build The Career You Want - Professor Of Behavioural Science Dr Grace Lordan