Decision Quality Over Outcome
Judge choices by available evidence, not by the luck that follows
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 100%
Treat every uncertain choice as a decision made with a finite information set. Gather what is reasonably available, identify the best-supported action, and commit to it. Once the outcome appears, separate the quality of the original reasoning from variance, luck, and events outside your control. A loss does not automatically prove that the decision was wrong, just as a win does not validate weak reasoning. Review outcomes only for genuinely new evidence that can improve future choices. This mechanism reduces hindsight bias and emotional rumination while preserving learning, allowing full commitment to the process alongside equanimity about results that cannot be controlled.
Origin
Nasser explicitly connected this philosophy to poker, where mathematically correct actions can still lose because of variance. Extracted from Deep Dive with Ali Abdaal.
Core principles
- 01A good decision can produce a bad outcome
- 02A bad decision can be rescued by luck
- 03Decision quality depends on information available at the time
- 04Variance should not trigger needless self-blame
- 05Commitment to process can coexist with detachment from outcomes
How to run it
- 1
Define the controllable choice
Separate the action you can choose from the outcome influenced by other forces.
Watch out Do not claim an outcome was uncontrollable when known risks were ignored.
- 2
Use current evidence
Gather relevant information and identify the best response available now.
Pro tip Set a reasonable stopping point for research.
Watch out Waiting for impossible certainty is itself a decision.
- 3
Record the rationale
Capture why the choice appears correct before hindsight changes the story.
- 4
Commit to execution
Carry out the chosen action without repeatedly reopening the same decision.
- 5
Separate process from variance
When results arrive, assess reasoning and luck independently.
Pro tip Ask whether the same choice would be justified across many repetitions.
Watch out A favorable result does not excuse a reckless process.
- 6
Update from new evidence
Change future decisions when the outcome reveals information that was not previously available.
In the wild
A player calculates that calling is the mathematically correct action with the information available. An unfavorable final card causes the hand to lose, but the player keeps the strategy because the decision remains profitable across repeated situations.
→ The player learns without mistaking short-term variance for poor judgment.
Common mistakes
Results-oriented hindsight
Judging the choice solely by what happened confuses decision quality with luck.
Using equanimity to avoid learning
Detachment from outcomes should not prevent incorporating real new evidence.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for consequential decisions where chance or external forces materially influence results.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal as an excuse to ignore foreseeable risks, poor preparation, or repeated negative evidence.
From the transcript
“make the best decision that you can with the information that you have right now.”
“Whatever happens after that could be good, could be bad based on that decision, but you did the right thing at the time.”
“total commitment to the process, total equanimity about the outcome.”
From the episode
How To Find Meaning In A Digital World - Kharma Medic
Kharma Medic