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Liv Boeree02 March 2023

Liv Boeree: Poker Rules Of Life, Game Theory, AI & Effective Altruism

6Frameworks
13Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take1:45:00

Social media's race to the bottom: beauty filters, clickbait and division

Boeree describes her own Twitter addiction and frames social media as a Moloch-style race to the bottom. Instagram beauty filters create an incentive pressure where, once others use them, you might as well too — a self-reinforcing arms race she covered in her video 'The Beauty Wars'. The same dynamic hit media: the internet democratised speech but cranked up competition, rewarding the most clickable, divisive, anger-provoking headlines. The deeper harm, she argues, is that these platforms reduce the richness of human experience to narrow metrics, which is inherently dehumanising.

  • Algorithms surface what triggers you, plus dopamine-driven like/follower loops
  • Beauty filters create a 'might as well' arms race — archetypal race to the bottom
  • Democratised media raised competition, rewarding clickbait and divisiveness
  • Anger is the surefire way to get clicks
  • Reducing human experience to narrow metrics is inherently dehumanising

it reduces the richness and complexity of the human experience down to these very narrow metrics and so by definition it's inherently dehumanizing

Liv Boeree · 1:48:00
#social-media#moloch#attention-economy#media

Explainer· 3

Explainer24:00

Why Liv Boeree no longer recommends becoming a professional poker player

Boeree explains that solvers and game-theory-optimal (GTO) analysis democratised what used to be proprietary intuition, shrinking the gap between beginners and pros and turning an art into more of a memorisation exercise. On top of that, 2017 brought the first superhuman poker AI, now fast enough to run near-real-time on an app. She urges people to learn poker for the life skills but not to make a living from it, and to avoid high-stakes online play where undetectable AI cheating is a real risk.

  • Solvers like PioSolver turned hidden intuition into memorisable optimal frequencies
  • The skill gap between beginners and pros has collapsed
  • 2017 saw the first superhuman poker AI; it now runs near real-time
  • Learn poker for the self-knowledge, don't rely on it for income, and avoid high-stakes online

it turned it more into chess, it was more about choosing a position and memorizing the optimal plays as opposed to just thinking on your…

Liv Boeree · 28:00
#poker#ai#game-theory#career-advice
Explainer1:28:00

Why Liv Boeree calls superintelligent AI 'an alien god'

Boeree argues that building something orders of magnitude more intelligent than humans is the highest-stakes thing to ever happen on Earth. Just as humans can fence in a physically stronger chimpanzee because we're smarter, a superintelligence could outthink and outmaneuver us — and there's no guarantee that intelligence correlates with wisdom, kindness, or any care for carbon-based life, since it runs on silicon. Even a small probability of catastrophe, she says, warrants far more resources on safety than the current roughly 100-to-1 (or worse) spend on capability over alignment.

  • Superintelligence could relate to us as we relate to a fenced-in chimpanzee
  • Intelligence need not correlate with wisdom, kindness, or caring about biological life
  • AI and humans run on different substrates — silicon versus carbon
  • Spending on capability vs safety is roughly 100:1 or worse
  • Even a tiny probability of catastrophe justifies serious safety investment

we're essentially creating a kind of alien god and that's like the most high stakes thing that's ever happened on Earth

Liv Boeree · 1:28:30
#ai-safety#existential-risk#alignment#superintelligence
Explainer1:35:30

The scary existential risks aren't asteroids — they're coordination failures

Boeree distinguishes 'easy' existential risks with a single source — asteroids, supervolcanoes, which are at least a physical point you can work on — from the hard ones that come from coordination failure and unhealthy competitive pressure. She singles out pandemic preparedness as badly neglected: Covid is 'small fry' compared with the growing probability of artificially enhanced or synthesised pathogens as biotech capability spreads to more people. Whether a threat is 10 or 100 years out, she argues, there's enough uncertainty that it's clearly a serious problem needing more minds.

  • Single-source risks (asteroids, supervolcanoes) are comparatively tractable
  • Coordination-failure risks are the genuinely hard ones
  • Pandemic preparedness is severely neglected
  • Synthesised or enhanced pathogens become more likely as biotech democratises
  • Uncertainty over timelines doesn't make the risk less real

Covid is small fry compared to what could potentially be coming

Liv Boeree · 1:35:30
#existential-risk#pandemic#biotech#coordination

Story· 4

Story05:30

How a £5 rebuy tournament win launched Liv Boeree's poker career

While filming a poker-themed TV game show as 'the professor', a 21-year-old Boeree wandered into London's Gut Shot Card Club and entered its infamous £5 rebuy tournament — not realising it was a rebuy. Surviving on her single buy-in while others re-bought all night, she won the whole thing, coming home at 5am and throwing roughly £800 in cash at her boyfriend. Coached on the show by Devilfish, Annie Duke and Phil Hellmuth, she decided poker could be a career.

  • Discovered poker via a sponsored TV game show that introduced five 'personalities' to the game
  • Won the Gut Shot £5 rebuy on one buy-in without knowing rebuys existed
  • Came home at 5am with ~£800, the most cash she'd ever seen
  • Coached by pros Devilfish, Annie Duke and Phil Hellmuth

somehow I get through the rebuy period with my one buy-in and I end up winning the whole thing

Liv Boeree · 06:00
#poker#origin-story#risk#career-change
Story46:30

Winning €1.25M at EPT San Remo after an Icelandic volcano stranded her

Stuck in Europe in 2010 when the Eyjafjallajokull ash cloud grounded flights, Boeree took a train through a French rail strike to a European Poker Tour event in Northern Italy. She won a €500 satellite into the €5,000 main event at 4am, then — fairly inexperienced and out of her comfort zone at the stakes — played six days and won the whole thing for €1.25 million. She was so nervous walking in on the final day she had to stop repeatedly to throw up, but settled into a flow state once the cards were in her hands.

  • A volcanic ash cloud and a rail strike are what got her to the tournament at all
  • Won a €500 satellite into the €5,000 main event, then the main event itself
  • €1.25M prize — life-changing money she never planned to compete for
  • Extreme pre-game nerves gave way to a flow state at the table

after six days of playing I end up winning the whole thing... for 1.25 million euros

Liv Boeree · 47:00
#poker#big-win#flow-state#nerves
Story53:30

The Burning Man 'energy healer' who seemingly cured her Meniere's

In 2018 Boeree developed distressing, clustering hearing distortion diagnosed as something like Meniere's disease — described to her as incurable and degenerative. Months later, low and skeptical at Burning Man, she let a stranger attempt 'energy healing' over her ear; the woman appeared to pull something out, dropped to the floor cold and frightened, and told Boeree her symptoms would fade over weeks. They did, and a later hearing test showed no noticeable loss. A self-described rationalist, she now holds the experience probabilistically — shifting her prior on such phenomena from one-in-a-million to roughly 40%.

  • Diagnosed around 2018 with something like incurable Meniere's disease
  • A Burning Man stranger's 'energy healing' seemingly removed the symptoms
  • A later hearing test showed no noticeable loss
  • She holds it probabilistically rather than as proof, but says it's worth serious study
  • Caveats hard: she can't refer the healer and doesn't claim to understand the cause

if my prior before that energy healing was a thing was around one in a million... it's now shifted to honestly like 40%

Liv Boeree · 58:00
#energy-healing#health#paranormal#probabilistic-thinking
Story1:18:00

How top poker players stay best friends while trying to destroy each other

Boeree describes poker's paradoxically collaborative culture: individualistic at the table, but away from it players form brain trusts and research groups, with national styles emerging (the Germans were dominant in the 2010s). The rare skill, she says, is compartmentalisation — best friends and study partners will bluff and needle each other ruthlessly during a hand, then debrief warmly afterward. She and her partner Igor, whose relationship is built on competition, go after each other harder than anyone when they share a table, then value collaboration above all once it's over.

  • Poker is individualistic at the table but collaborative away from it
  • Players form brain trusts; distinct national styles emerged (e.g. the Germans)
  • The key skill is compartmentalising competition and friendship
  • Boeree and Igor go after each other hardest at the table, then debrief as friends
  • Express the competitive side, but value collaboration above all else

this is where we express this competitive side of our nature but then still value collaboration above all else

Liv Boeree · 1:20:00
#poker#competition#collaboration#relationships

Q&A· 2

Q&A18:00

Should you take the risky leap? Know yourself and your safety net first

Asked what she'd tell a 21-year-old choosing between a safe job and a risky bet on a startup or creative career, Boeree refuses a blanket answer. 'Always take the risk' and 'stick with what you know' are guiding principles, not hard rules. What matters is knowing your own risk tolerance and loss aversion, and being honest about your safety net — supportive parents who'll take you back are a huge, uncontrollable privilege that changes the true riskiness of any gamble. She also flags survivorship bias: successful risk-takers are outliers, not proof the odds favour you.

  • No universal answer — it's deeply personal and situational
  • Know your own risk tolerance and loss aversion before deciding
  • A family safety net materially lowers the real risk of a gamble
  • Beware survivorship bias: outlier winners aren't evidence you'll win too
  • Jeff Bezos's regret-minimisation is a useful cross-check

just because that's what happened to them, that doesn't mean you're statistically likely to happen to you

Liv Boeree · 22:30
#risk#career-advice#decision-making#survivorship-bias
Q&A38:30

Why high-stakes poker is 97% men — and why 50/50 is unlikely

Boeree gives a deliberately nuanced answer on the roughly 97:3 male-to-female ratio at high-stakes poker. It's both nature and nurture: real, documented sexism and a historically unwelcoming 'boys club', but also that the game correlates with traits — high risk tolerance, cutthroat competitiveness, narrow obsessive focus — that skew male on average. She acknowledges benefiting from affirmative-action sponsorship herself, credits initiatives that improved the ratio, but argues true parity at the high-stakes level is unrealistic.

  • High-stakes ratio is about 97% men to 3% women
  • Cause is both nurture (sexism, historic exclusion) and nature (trait correlations)
  • Risk tolerance and cutthroat competitiveness skew male on average
  • Boeree admits sponsorship deals she got as a woman she likely wouldn't have as a man
  • She thinks 50/50 parity at high stakes is 'delusional' to expect

the real answer is it's both, it's a mixture of both

Liv Boeree · 39:30
#poker#gender#nature-vs-nurture#risk-tolerance

Tool· 2

Tool1:41:30

Liv Boeree's reading list on Moloch, competition and existential risk

Boeree points listeners to the sources that shaped her thinking. To understand Moloch and multipolar traps, read Scott Alexander's blog post 'Meditations on Moloch'. For systems thinking on civilizational risk, watch Daniel Schmachtenberger (especially his talk on emergence) and Jordan Hall. For the games framing, James Carse's 'Finite and Infinite Games' (the first two chapters suffice). She also recommends the 80,000 Hours podcast, Eliezer Yudkowsky's writing on LessWrong and 'Inadequate Equilibria', James Lovelock's 'Novacene', and her friend Tim Urban's forthcoming book on tribalism.

  • 'Meditations on Moloch' by Scott Alexander — the best primer on multipolar traps
  • Daniel Schmachtenberger and Jordan Hall for holistic systems thinking
  • 'Finite and Infinite Games' by James Carse — first two chapters are enough
  • 80,000 Hours podcast and Eliezer Yudkowsky (LessWrong, 'Inadequate Equilibria')
  • James Lovelock's 'Novacene' and Tim Urban's upcoming book on tribalism

just Google 'Meditations on Moloch' and read that, that is the best primer to these forces of game theory

Liv Boeree · 1:42:00
#reading-list#moloch#existential-risk#systems-thinking
Tool2:08:30

Why Liv Boeree calls bouldering 'physical chess' worth trying

Asked for an experience more people should try, Boeree recommends bouldering. Humans evolved to be excellent climbers, and although the learning curve feels steep — forearm tightness, a sense you'll never manage it — grip strength arrives remarkably fast if you stick with it a couple of months. What she loves is that it's not pure brawn: routes are literally called 'problems', puzzles you solve with your body, making it ideal for anyone who wants intellectual stimulation in their exercise, especially with a partner at a similar level.

  • Humans are naturally well-built for climbing
  • Steep early curve, but grip strength comes fast — give it a couple of months
  • Routes are 'problems' — puzzles solved with the body, like physical chess
  • Great for people who want intellectual stimulation in exercise
  • Best done with a partner at a similar level to challenge and learn together

it's kind of like physical chess... it's a puzzle to solve that happens to be physical

Liv Boeree · 2:09:00
#bouldering#fitness#hobby#recommendation

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway1:50:30

The one practical antidote to the information wars: radical personal integrity

Facing the 'trillion-dollar question' of how to fix a media system that rewards spin and division, Boeree offers one concrete personal action: commit to only saying what you genuinely believe to be true. The failure mode isn't outright lying but adding 'flair' — spinning a title or a tweet for attention in ways that are technically true but slanted. If enough trusted people in a network make this commitment, she argues, small clusters of truth emerge and something more grounded can grow. Ali admits his own video titles are guilty of exactly this pressure.

  • The corrosive move is spin, not outright lies — technically true but slanted for attention
  • Commit to saying only what you believe to be true, as best you can
  • Truth-telling clusters in trusted networks can compound
  • Ali confesses his own clickbait-adjacent video titles
  • Framed as a practical step anyone can take amid the 'media wars'

make a commitment to only saying what we believe to be true

Liv Boeree · 1:51:00
#integrity#truth#media#personal-action