Liv Boeree02 March 2023

Liv Boeree: Poker Rules Of Life, Game Theory, AI & Effective Altruism

6Frameworks

13Insights

Episode overview

Ali Abdaal interviews Liv Boeree about her unlikely path from an astrophysics degree and a poker game show to winning the European Poker Tour and becoming a World Series of Poker champion. Boeree explains how poker taught her to separate decision quality from luck, focus on process, and think probabilistically about risk. They also explore effective altruism, AI safety, social-media incentives, coordination failures, and the pursuit of healthier, win-win competition.

Key ideas

Good outcomes do not prove that a risky decision was correct; personal risk tolerance, safety nets, and possible regret all belong in the calculation.
Poker provides a practical laboratory for probabilistic thinking, emotional resilience, process-focused evaluation, and distinguishing skill from luck.
Game-theory solvers and superhuman poker AI have compressed the skill gap and increased cheating risks, making professional online poker less attractive.
Effective altruism applies evidence, expected value, and triage to allocating limited philanthropic resources among competing global problems.
Advanced AI could be enormously beneficial or catastrophic, so safety and alignment deserve substantially more attention alongside capability development.
Moloch describes competitive systems in which individually rational short-term actions create harmful collective outcomes or multipolar traps.
Social platforms reduce human complexity to narrow engagement metrics, rewarding addictive behavior, beauty escalation, clickbait, anger, and divisiveness.
Healthier competition keeps games and relationships viable over the long term, combining vigorous play with cooperation and concern for system-wide effects.

Transcript available · source text is retained privately and is not published

Frameworks in this episode

Strategy5 steps

Expected-Value Giving

Apply the scientific method to philanthropy to buy the most impact per dollar

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Mindset4 steps

Finite vs Infinite Games Filter

Decide by whether a move wins the round or keeps the game going forever

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Mindset5 steps

Positive-Sum Game Audit

Ask of any endeavour: is this win-win, win-lose, or lose-lose — externalities included?

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Self-Mastery5 steps

Process-Over-Results Scoring

Grade yourself on how well you followed your best process, not on the outcome

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Strategy5 steps

The Moloch Lens

Spot the race-to-the-bottom where each rational move makes everyone collectively worse off

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Peak Performance4 steps

The Perspective-Zoom Reset

Beat a slump by choosing the time frame that reveals the real trend line

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People & resources mentioned

Attributed to the moment in the episode. Timestamps are approximate.

People · 16

Liv BoereeMentionsLiv is a World Series of Poker and European Poker Tour Champion
“Liv is a World Series of Poker and European Poker Tour Champion”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
Ali AbdaalMentionsthe ongoing podcast where every week I get the chance to sit down with inspiring authors, entrepreneurs, creators, and other inspiring people.
“what you're about to hear is an interview between me and Liv bori”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
Phil HellmuthMentionsPhil Hellmuth who is probably the most famous poker player alive today
“Phil Hellmuth who is probably the most famous poker player alive today”
▶ Watch at ~7:00approx.
Annie DukeMentionsAnnie Duke who at the time was the most successful female poker player
“Annie Duke who at the time was the most successful female poker player”
▶ Watch at ~7:00approx.
Jeff BezosMentionswho's a freak of nature whose first business becomes the most valuable business in the world
“Jeff Bezos talks about regret minimization”
▶ Watch at ~20:30approx.
Julian HearnMentionswe have the founder of huel Julian Hearn who was on the very first season of the podcast
“Julian Hearn who is the founder of heal”
▶ Watch at ~30:00approx.
Stefan HuberMentionsStefan who was you know the other two co-founders of the org
“Stefan who was you know the other two co-founders of the org”
▶ Watch at ~1:08:00approx.
Dan SmithMentionsDan Smith who's another very very successful poker player
“Dan Smith who's another very very successful poker player”
▶ Watch at ~1:11:00approx.
Igor KurganovMentionspartner and boyfriend Igor
“partner and boyfriend Igor”
▶ Watch at ~1:14:30approx.
Eliezer YudkowskyMentionshe's been sounding the alarm on on AI since the early 2000s
“a lot of Elias yukowski's writing on less wrong”
▶ Watch at ~1:31:00approx.
Fred KaplanCoinedmentioned
“the Bomb by Fred Kaplan”
▶ Watch at ~1:36:00approx.
Jordan HallRecommendsone of the best like real sort of systems thinkers
“I really recommend listening to like Jordan Hall Daniel schmachtenberger”
▶ Watch at ~1:44:00approx.
Daniel SchmachtenbergerRecommendsone of the best like real sort of systems thinkers
“I really recommend listening to like Jordan Hall Daniel schmachtenberger”
▶ Watch at ~1:44:00approx.
James LovelockCoinedhe was one of the most polymathy brilliant scientist
“Nova scene by James Lovelock”
▶ Watch at ~2:06:30approx.
Eliezer YudkowskyCoinedhe's been sounding the alarm on on AI since the early 2000s
“inadequate equilibrium which is technically an e-book by eleazkowski”
▶ Watch at ~2:07:00approx.
Tim UrbanCoinedTim Urban's blog post he's got an amazing blog uh wait but why
“it's by one of my dearest friends Tim Urban”
▶ Watch at ~2:07:30approx.

Resources · 28

European Poker TourMentionsevent
“Liv is a World Series of Poker and European Poker Tour Champion”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
World Series of PokerMentionsevent
“Liv is a World Series of Poker and European Poker Tour Champion”
▶ Watch at ~0:00approx.
AOLMentionscompany
“advertising.com which was a subsidiary of AOL”
▶ Watch at ~15:00approx.
World Poker TourMentionsevent
“go and play in the world world Poker Tour”
▶ Watch at ~16:30approx.
PioSOLVERUsessoftware
“there's this one called Pius solver that was you know certainly the one everyone used”
▶ Watch at ~27:30approx.
HuelUsesproduct · Julian Hearn
“I've been a customer of Hill for the last six years”
▶ Watch at ~30:00approx.
HuelRecommendsproduct · Julian Hearn
“if that sounds up your street and you would like a nutritionally complete and affordable and healthy option”
▶ Watch at ~31:00approx.
Trading 212Recommendssoftware · Trading 212
“if you haven't yet started with investing and you want to give it a go then you can download the app”
▶ Watch at ~33:00approx.
Global Poker IndexUseswebsite
“a sort of point system of recent Tournament results called the global poker index”
▶ Watch at ~34:30approx.
Waking UpMentionsbook · Sam Harris
“vaguely dabbled with meditation and like read waking up”
▶ Watch at ~53:00approx.
Burning ManMentionsevent
“three months later and Matt Burning Man”
▶ Watch at ~54:30approx.
WeWorkUsescompany
“I have been able paying customer of wework for the last two years”
▶ Watch at ~59:30approx.
WeWorkRecommendscompany
“if you're looking for a co-working space for you or your team then I'd 100 recommend wework”
▶ Watch at ~1:01:00approx.
PokerStarsMentionscompany
“a few months later you know they offered me a a spot on their roster”
▶ Watch at ~1:03:00approx.
Against Malaria FoundationRecommendscompany
“for every roughly around four thousand five thousand dollars you donate say to against malaria Foundation you on expectation save a literal life”
▶ Watch at ~1:08:30approx.
Raising for Effective GivingCoinedcompany · Liv Boeree, Igor Kurganov, Philipp Gruissem, and Stefan Huber
“we started this thing called raising for Effective giving”
▶ Watch at ~1:10:00approx.
Double Up DriveCoinedevent · Dan Smith
“took these same principles and started his own thing called double up Drive”
▶ Watch at ~1:11:00approx.
LessWrongUseswebsite
“a lot of Elias yukowski's writing on less wrong”
▶ Watch at ~1:31:00approx.
80,000 Hours PodcastRecommendspodcast · 80,000 Hours
“are the 80 000 hours podcast absolutely incredible”
▶ Watch at ~1:38:00approx.
Astral Codex TenMentionsnewsletter · Scott Alexander
“it's now astral code X10”
▶ Watch at ~1:42:00approx.
Meditations on MolochRecommendsother · Scott Alexander
“just Google meditations on molok and read that that is the best primer”
▶ Watch at ~1:42:00approx.
Slate Star CodexMentionswebsite · Scott Alexander
“his website was once called slay star codex”
▶ Watch at ~1:42:00approx.
The Beauty WarsCoinedother · Liv Boeree
“made it about a year ago called the beauty Wars”
▶ Watch at ~1:46:00approx.
The Media WarsCoinedother · Liv Boeree
“it's going to be called the media Wars”
▶ Watch at ~1:48:30approx.
Articulate!Usesproduct
“a big fan of the board game articulate amazing stuff”
▶ Watch at ~1:57:30approx.
NovaceneRecommendsbook · James Lovelock
“Nova scene by James Lovelock fairly nice short read”
▶ Watch at ~2:06:30approx.
Inadequate EquilibriaRecommendsbook · Eliezer Yudkowsky
“inadequate equilibrium which is technically an e-book by eleazkowski”
▶ Watch at ~2:07:00approx.
What's Our Problem?Recommendsbook · Tim Urban
“it's going to be called The Tale of us”
▶ Watch at ~2:07:30approx.

Spot an error or want something removed? Request a correction or removal.

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take1:45:00

Social media's race to the bottom: beauty filters, clickbait and division

Boeree describes her own Twitter addiction and frames social media as a Moloch-style race to the bottom. Instagram beauty filters create an incentive pressure where, once others use them, you might as well too — a self-reinforcing arms race she covered in her video 'The Beauty Wars'. The same dynamic hit media: the internet democratised speech but cranked up competition, rewarding the most clickable, divisive, anger-provoking headlines. The deeper harm, she argues, is that these platforms reduce the richness of human experience to narrow metrics, which is inherently dehumanising.

Algorithms surface what triggers you, plus dopamine-driven like/follower loops
Beauty filters create a 'might as well' arms race — archetypal race to the bottom
Democratised media raised competition, rewarding clickbait and divisiveness
Anger is the surefire way to get clicks
Reducing human experience to narrow metrics is inherently dehumanising

“it reduces the richness and complexity of the human experience down to these very narrow metrics and so by definition it's inherently dehumanizing”
Liv Boeree · 1:48:00

#social-media#moloch#attention-economy#media

Explainer· 3

Explainer24:00

Why Liv Boeree no longer recommends becoming a professional poker player

Boeree explains that solvers and game-theory-optimal (GTO) analysis democratised what used to be proprietary intuition, shrinking the gap between beginners and pros and turning an art into more of a memorisation exercise. On top of that, 2017 brought the first superhuman poker AI, now fast enough to run near-real-time on an app. She urges people to learn poker for the life skills but not to make a living from it, and to avoid high-stakes online play where undetectable AI cheating is a real risk.

Solvers like PioSolver turned hidden intuition into memorisable optimal frequencies
The skill gap between beginners and pros has collapsed
2017 saw the first superhuman poker AI; it now runs near real-time
Learn poker for the self-knowledge, don't rely on it for income, and avoid high-stakes online

“it turned it more into chess, it was more about choosing a position and memorizing the optimal plays as opposed to just thinking on your…”
Liv Boeree · 28:00

#poker#ai#game-theory#career-advice

Explainer1:28:00

Why Liv Boeree calls superintelligent AI 'an alien god'

Boeree argues that building something orders of magnitude more intelligent than humans is the highest-stakes thing to ever happen on Earth. Just as humans can fence in a physically stronger chimpanzee because we're smarter, a superintelligence could outthink and outmaneuver us — and there's no guarantee that intelligence correlates with wisdom, kindness, or any care for carbon-based life, since it runs on silicon. Even a small probability of catastrophe, she says, warrants far more resources on safety than the current roughly 100-to-1 (or worse) spend on capability over alignment.

Superintelligence could relate to us as we relate to a fenced-in chimpanzee
Intelligence need not correlate with wisdom, kindness, or caring about biological life
AI and humans run on different substrates — silicon versus carbon
Spending on capability vs safety is roughly 100:1 or worse
Even a tiny probability of catastrophe justifies serious safety investment

“we're essentially creating a kind of alien god and that's like the most high stakes thing that's ever happened on Earth”
Liv Boeree · 1:28:30

#ai-safety#existential-risk#alignment#superintelligence

Explainer1:35:30

The scary existential risks aren't asteroids — they're coordination failures

Boeree distinguishes 'easy' existential risks with a single source — asteroids, supervolcanoes, which are at least a physical point you can work on — from the hard ones that come from coordination failure and unhealthy competitive pressure. She singles out pandemic preparedness as badly neglected: Covid is 'small fry' compared with the growing probability of artificially enhanced or synthesised pathogens as biotech capability spreads to more people. Whether a threat is 10 or 100 years out, she argues, there's enough uncertainty that it's clearly a serious problem needing more minds.

Single-source risks (asteroids, supervolcanoes) are comparatively tractable
Coordination-failure risks are the genuinely hard ones
Pandemic preparedness is severely neglected
Synthesised or enhanced pathogens become more likely as biotech democratises
Uncertainty over timelines doesn't make the risk less real

“Covid is small fry compared to what could potentially be coming”
Liv Boeree · 1:35:30

#existential-risk#pandemic#biotech#coordination

Story· 4

Story05:30

How a £5 rebuy tournament win launched Liv Boeree's poker career

While filming a poker-themed TV game show as 'the professor', a 21-year-old Boeree wandered into London's Gut Shot Card Club and entered its infamous £5 rebuy tournament — not realising it was a rebuy. Surviving on her single buy-in while others re-bought all night, she won the whole thing, coming home at 5am and throwing roughly £800 in cash at her boyfriend. Coached on the show by Devilfish, Annie Duke and Phil Hellmuth, she decided poker could be a career.

Discovered poker via a sponsored TV game show that introduced five 'personalities' to the game
Won the Gut Shot £5 rebuy on one buy-in without knowing rebuys existed
Came home at 5am with ~£800, the most cash she'd ever seen
Coached by pros Devilfish, Annie Duke and Phil Hellmuth

“somehow I get through the rebuy period with my one buy-in and I end up winning the whole thing”
Liv Boeree · 06:00

#poker#origin-story#risk#career-change

Story46:30

Winning €1.25M at EPT San Remo after an Icelandic volcano stranded her

Stuck in Europe in 2010 when the Eyjafjallajokull ash cloud grounded flights, Boeree took a train through a French rail strike to a European Poker Tour event in Northern Italy. She won a €500 satellite into the €5,000 main event at 4am, then — fairly inexperienced and out of her comfort zone at the stakes — played six days and won the whole thing for €1.25 million. She was so nervous walking in on the final day she had to stop repeatedly to throw up, but settled into a flow state once the cards were in her hands.

A volcanic ash cloud and a rail strike are what got her to the tournament at all
Won a €500 satellite into the €5,000 main event, then the main event itself
€1.25M prize — life-changing money she never planned to compete for
Extreme pre-game nerves gave way to a flow state at the table

“after six days of playing I end up winning the whole thing... for 1.25 million euros”
Liv Boeree · 47:00

#poker#big-win#flow-state#nerves

Story53:30

The Burning Man 'energy healer' who seemingly cured her Meniere's

In 2018 Boeree developed distressing, clustering hearing distortion diagnosed as something like Meniere's disease — described to her as incurable and degenerative. Months later, low and skeptical at Burning Man, she let a stranger attempt 'energy healing' over her ear; the woman appeared to pull something out, dropped to the floor cold and frightened, and told Boeree her symptoms would fade over weeks. They did, and a later hearing test showed no noticeable loss. A self-described rationalist, she now holds the experience probabilistically — shifting her prior on such phenomena from one-in-a-million to roughly 40%.

Diagnosed around 2018 with something like incurable Meniere's disease
A Burning Man stranger's 'energy healing' seemingly removed the symptoms
A later hearing test showed no noticeable loss
She holds it probabilistically rather than as proof, but says it's worth serious study
Caveats hard: she can't refer the healer and doesn't claim to understand the cause

“if my prior before that energy healing was a thing was around one in a million... it's now shifted to honestly like 40%”
Liv Boeree · 58:00

#energy-healing#health#paranormal#probabilistic-thinking

Story1:18:00

How top poker players stay best friends while trying to destroy each other

Boeree describes poker's paradoxically collaborative culture: individualistic at the table, but away from it players form brain trusts and research groups, with national styles emerging (the Germans were dominant in the 2010s). The rare skill, she says, is compartmentalisation — best friends and study partners will bluff and needle each other ruthlessly during a hand, then debrief warmly afterward. She and her partner Igor, whose relationship is built on competition, go after each other harder than anyone when they share a table, then value collaboration above all once it's over.

Poker is individualistic at the table but collaborative away from it
Players form brain trusts; distinct national styles emerged (e.g. the Germans)
The key skill is compartmentalising competition and friendship
Boeree and Igor go after each other hardest at the table, then debrief as friends
Express the competitive side, but value collaboration above all else

“this is where we express this competitive side of our nature but then still value collaboration above all else”
Liv Boeree · 1:20:00

#poker#competition#collaboration#relationships

Q&A· 2

Q&A18:00

Should you take the risky leap? Know yourself and your safety net first

Asked what she'd tell a 21-year-old choosing between a safe job and a risky bet on a startup or creative career, Boeree refuses a blanket answer. 'Always take the risk' and 'stick with what you know' are guiding principles, not hard rules. What matters is knowing your own risk tolerance and loss aversion, and being honest about your safety net — supportive parents who'll take you back are a huge, uncontrollable privilege that changes the true riskiness of any gamble. She also flags survivorship bias: successful risk-takers are outliers, not proof the odds favour you.

No universal answer — it's deeply personal and situational
Know your own risk tolerance and loss aversion before deciding
A family safety net materially lowers the real risk of a gamble
Beware survivorship bias: outlier winners aren't evidence you'll win too
Jeff Bezos's regret-minimisation is a useful cross-check

“just because that's what happened to them, that doesn't mean you're statistically likely to happen to you”
Liv Boeree · 22:30

#risk#career-advice#decision-making#survivorship-bias

Q&A38:30

Why high-stakes poker is 97% men — and why 50/50 is unlikely

Boeree gives a deliberately nuanced answer on the roughly 97:3 male-to-female ratio at high-stakes poker. It's both nature and nurture: real, documented sexism and a historically unwelcoming 'boys club', but also that the game correlates with traits — high risk tolerance, cutthroat competitiveness, narrow obsessive focus — that skew male on average. She acknowledges benefiting from affirmative-action sponsorship herself, credits initiatives that improved the ratio, but argues true parity at the high-stakes level is unrealistic.

High-stakes ratio is about 97% men to 3% women
Cause is both nurture (sexism, historic exclusion) and nature (trait correlations)
Risk tolerance and cutthroat competitiveness skew male on average
Boeree admits sponsorship deals she got as a woman she likely wouldn't have as a man
She thinks 50/50 parity at high stakes is 'delusional' to expect

“the real answer is it's both, it's a mixture of both”
Liv Boeree · 39:30

#poker#gender#nature-vs-nurture#risk-tolerance

Tool· 2

Tool1:41:30

Liv Boeree's reading list on Moloch, competition and existential risk

Boeree points listeners to the sources that shaped her thinking. To understand Moloch and multipolar traps, read Scott Alexander's blog post 'Meditations on Moloch'. For systems thinking on civilizational risk, watch Daniel Schmachtenberger (especially his talk on emergence) and Jordan Hall. For the games framing, James Carse's 'Finite and Infinite Games' (the first two chapters suffice). She also recommends the 80,000 Hours podcast, Eliezer Yudkowsky's writing on LessWrong and 'Inadequate Equilibria', James Lovelock's 'Novacene', and her friend Tim Urban's forthcoming book on tribalism.

'Meditations on Moloch' by Scott Alexander — the best primer on multipolar traps
Daniel Schmachtenberger and Jordan Hall for holistic systems thinking
'Finite and Infinite Games' by James Carse — first two chapters are enough
80,000 Hours podcast and Eliezer Yudkowsky (LessWrong, 'Inadequate Equilibria')
James Lovelock's 'Novacene' and Tim Urban's upcoming book on tribalism

“just Google 'Meditations on Moloch' and read that, that is the best primer to these forces of game theory”
Liv Boeree · 1:42:00

#reading-list#moloch#existential-risk#systems-thinking

Tool2:08:30

Why Liv Boeree calls bouldering 'physical chess' worth trying

Asked for an experience more people should try, Boeree recommends bouldering. Humans evolved to be excellent climbers, and although the learning curve feels steep — forearm tightness, a sense you'll never manage it — grip strength arrives remarkably fast if you stick with it a couple of months. What she loves is that it's not pure brawn: routes are literally called 'problems', puzzles you solve with your body, making it ideal for anyone who wants intellectual stimulation in their exercise, especially with a partner at a similar level.

Humans are naturally well-built for climbing
Steep early curve, but grip strength comes fast — give it a couple of months
Routes are 'problems' — puzzles solved with the body, like physical chess
Great for people who want intellectual stimulation in exercise
Best done with a partner at a similar level to challenge and learn together

“it's kind of like physical chess... it's a puzzle to solve that happens to be physical”
Liv Boeree · 2:09:00

#bouldering#fitness#hobby#recommendation

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway1:50:30

The one practical antidote to the information wars: radical personal integrity

Facing the 'trillion-dollar question' of how to fix a media system that rewards spin and division, Boeree offers one concrete personal action: commit to only saying what you genuinely believe to be true. The failure mode isn't outright lying but adding 'flair' — spinning a title or a tweet for attention in ways that are technically true but slanted. If enough trusted people in a network make this commitment, she argues, small clusters of truth emerge and something more grounded can grow. Ali admits his own video titles are guilty of exactly this pressure.

The corrosive move is spin, not outright lies — technically true but slanted for attention
Commit to saying only what you believe to be true, as best you can
Truth-telling clusters in trusted networks can compound
Ali confesses his own clickbait-adjacent video titles
Framed as a practical step anyone can take amid the 'media wars'

“make a commitment to only saying what we believe to be true”
Liv Boeree · 1:51:00

#integrity#truth#media#personal-action

Key ideas

Frameworks in this episode

Expected-Value Giving

Finite vs Infinite Games Filter

Positive-Sum Game Audit

Process-Over-Results Scoring

The Moloch Lens

The Perspective-Zoom Reset

People & resources mentioned

People · 16

Resources · 28

Insights & moments

◆Hot Take· 1

Social media's race to the bottom: beauty filters, clickbait and division

✶Explainer· 3

Why Liv Boeree no longer recommends becoming a professional poker player

Why Liv Boeree calls superintelligent AI 'an alien god'

The scary existential risks aren't asteroids — they're coordination failures

❝Story· 4

How a £5 rebuy tournament win launched Liv Boeree's poker career

Winning €1.25M at EPT San Remo after an Icelandic volcano stranded her

The Burning Man 'energy healer' who seemingly cured her Meniere's

How top poker players stay best friends while trying to destroy each other

?Q&A· 2

Should you take the risky leap? Know yourself and your safety net first

Why high-stakes poker is 97% men — and why 50/50 is unlikely

✦Tool· 2

Liv Boeree's reading list on Moloch, competition and existential risk

Why Liv Boeree calls bouldering 'physical chess' worth trying

▲Takeaway· 1

The one practical antidote to the information wars: radical personal integrity

Hot Take· 1

Explainer· 3

Story· 4

Q&A· 2

Tool· 2

Takeaway· 1